Kalshi · Rushil1234 · Jul 31, 2025 · Aug 4, 2025 · Aug 4, 2025 · Aug 4, 2025
diff --git a/.DS_Store b/.DS_Store
diff --git a/.env.example b/.env.example
@@ -0,0 +1,7 @@
+# .env.example
+# For Kalshi Demo Environment
+DEMO_KEYID=3627ae7b-ca77-4eb4-ad64-36e654a4e02e
+DEMO_KEYFILE=test1.txt
+
+# For NOAA Historical Data
+NOAA_API_TOKEN="PZgbYnOwDvdWXAkXBNfJjnbjHfeROsyM"
diff --git a/README.md b/README.md
@@ -1,10 +1,37 @@
-# kalshi-starter-code-python
-Example python code for accessing api-authenticated endpoints on [Kalshi](https://kalshi.com). This is not an SDK. 
+# Kalshi Weather Trading Bot
 
-## Installation 
-Install requirements.txt in a virtual environment of your choice and execute main.py from within the repo.
+This is a modular, robust trading bot for Kalshi weather markets focused exclusively on Philadelphia markets. The bot uses XGBoost-based predictive modeling integrated into a CLI for training, backtesting, and live trading.
+
+## Project Structure
 
 ```
-pip install -r requirements.txt
+kalshi_weather_bot/
+│
+├── data/              # Data storage directory
+│   └── (holds downloaded csv files)
+│
+├── models/            # Model storage directory
+│   └── (holds saved model files)
+│
+├── backtests/         # Backtesting results
+│   └── (holds backtest results and metrics)
+│
+├── src/               # Source code modules
+│   ├── data_collection/
+│   ├── feature_engineering/
+│   ├── modeling/
+│   ├── backtesting/
+│   └── trading/
+│
+├── .env.example       # Example environment file
+├── .env               # Your API credentials (not in repo)
+├── clients.py         # Kalshi API client
+├── config.py          # Configuration parameters
+├── main.py            # Main controller with CLI interface
+├── requirements.txt   # Python dependencies
+├── deploy.sh          # Deployment script
+└── README.md          # This file
+        ├── __init__.py
+        └── trader.py
 python main.py
 ```
diff --git a/backtests/backtest_metrics_20250731_075424.json b/backtests/backtest_metrics_20250731_075424.json
@@ -0,0 +1,7 @@
+{
+  "total_return_pct": 1416.6288476730167,
+  "num_trades": 197,
+  "max_drawdown_pct": 32.721988615457896,
+  "sharpe_ratio": 2.7577769447030587,
+  "win_rate_pct": 44.67005076142132
+}
diff --git a/backtests/backtest_metrics_20250804_012311.json b/backtests/backtest_metrics_20250804_012311.json
@@ -0,0 +1,7 @@
+{
+  "total_return_pct": 70617.12251110707,
+  "num_trades": 588,
+  "max_drawdown_pct": 53.59977347946383,
+  "sharpe_ratio": 0.6543218665388222,
+  "win_rate_pct": 34.01360544217687
+}
diff --git a/backtests/backtest_metrics_20250804_012815.json b/backtests/backtest_metrics_20250804_012815.json
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
+{
+  "message": "No trades were made during backtesting."
+}
diff --git a/backtests/backtest_metrics_20250804_012929.json b/backtests/backtest_metrics_20250804_012929.json
@@ -0,0 +1,7 @@
+{
+  "total_return_pct": 2410442576.629363,
+  "num_trades": 671,
+  "max_drawdown_pct": 47.972670414296765,
+  "sharpe_ratio": 1.7344546286105804,
+  "win_rate_pct": 82.11624441132638
+}
diff --git a/backtests/backtest_metrics_20250804_013132.json b/backtests/backtest_metrics_20250804_013132.json
@@ -0,0 +1,7 @@
+{
+  "total_return_pct": -94.20570082682177,
+  "num_trades": 675,
+  "max_drawdown_pct": 94.22134297153437,
+  "sharpe_ratio": -6.438670781671149,
+  "win_rate_pct": 80.5925925925926
+}
diff --git a/backtests/backtest_metrics_20250804_013157.json b/backtests/backtest_metrics_20250804_013157.json
@@ -0,0 +1,7 @@
+{
+  "total_return_pct": -92.59875276874347,
+  "num_trades": 689,
+  "max_drawdown_pct": 92.61548659546241,
+  "sharpe_ratio": -5.973289931105801,
+  "win_rate_pct": 82.29317851959361
+}
diff --git a/backtests/backtest_metrics_20250804_022058.json b/backtests/backtest_metrics_20250804_022058.json
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
+{
+  "message": "No trades were made during backtesting."
+}
diff --git a/backtests/backtest_metrics_20250804_095641.json b/backtests/backtest_metrics_20250804_095641.json
@@ -0,0 +1,7 @@
+{
+  "total_return_pct": -99.71683624112629,
+  "num_trades": 2254,
+  "max_drawdown_pct": 99.7177619489648,
+  "sharpe_ratio": -4.761328941663111,
+  "win_rate_pct": 87.35581188997338
+}
diff --git a/backtests/backtest_metrics_20250804_102141.json b/backtests/backtest_metrics_20250804_102141.json
@@ -0,0 +1,7 @@
+{
+  "total_return_pct": -99.84735237447275,
+  "num_trades": 2255,
+  "max_drawdown_pct": 99.84949675316788,
+  "sharpe_ratio": -5.0753910830145825,
+  "win_rate_pct": 86.25277161862527
+}
diff --git a/backtests/backtest_metrics_20250804_110508.json b/backtests/backtest_metrics_20250804_110508.json
@@ -0,0 +1,7 @@
+{
+  "total_return_pct": -99.94626924983766,
+  "num_trades": 2276,
+  "max_drawdown_pct": 99.94689488297486,
+  "sharpe_ratio": -5.54734559947591,
+  "win_rate_pct": 84.49033391915641
+}
diff --git a/backtests/backtest_metrics_20250804_110607.json b/backtests/backtest_metrics_20250804_110607.json
@@ -0,0 +1,7 @@
+{
+  "total_return_pct": -99.99999999981728,
+  "num_trades": 2492,
+  "max_drawdown_pct": 99.9999999998222,
+  "sharpe_ratio": -9.384662478797791,
+  "win_rate_pct": 39.72712680577849
+}
diff --git a/backtests/backtest_metrics_20250804_110839.json b/backtests/backtest_metrics_20250804_110839.json
@@ -0,0 +1,7 @@
+{
+  "total_return_pct": -99.99999999943691,
+  "num_trades": 2492,
+  "max_drawdown_pct": 99.99999999943692,
+  "sharpe_ratio": -8.936473025994527,
+  "win_rate_pct": 40.93097913322632
+}
diff --git a/backtests/backtest_metrics_20250804_110946.json b/backtests/backtest_metrics_20250804_110946.json
@@ -0,0 +1,7 @@
+{
+  "total_return_pct": -99.99999999957674,
+  "num_trades": 2492,
+  "max_drawdown_pct": 99.99999999960471,
+  "sharpe_ratio": -8.986360268878498,
+  "win_rate_pct": 40.32905296950241
+}
diff --git a/backtests/trade_log_20250731_075424.csv b/backtests/trade_log_20250731_075424.csv
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