diff --git a/.ado/azure-pipelines.publish.yml b/.ado/azure-pipelines.publish.yml
index 62541cb73d..7f0bd283da 100644
--- a/.ado/azure-pipelines.publish.yml
+++ b/.ado/azure-pipelines.publish.yml
@@ -78,14 +78,19 @@ extends:
                 displayName: 'Pack all public packages'
 
               - script: |
-                  echo "Packed tarballs:"
                   ls -la $(System.DefaultWorkingDirectory)/_packed/
+                  if ls $(System.DefaultWorkingDirectory)/_packed/*.tgz > /dev/null 2>&1; then
+                    echo "##vso[task.setvariable variable=hasTarballs;isOutput=true]true"
+                  else
+                    echo "##vso[task.setvariable variable=hasTarballs;isOutput=true]false"
+                  fi
+                name: check
                 displayName: 'List packed tarballs'
 
       - stage: Publish
         displayName: Publish to NPM
         dependsOn: Build
-        condition: and(succeeded(), eq(variables['Build.SourceBranch'], 'refs/heads/main'), not(${{ parameters.skipNpmPublish }}))
+        condition: and(succeeded(), eq(variables['Build.SourceBranch'], 'refs/heads/main'), not(${{ parameters.skipNpmPublish }}), eq(stageDependencies.Build.BuildAndPack.outputs['check.hasTarballs'], 'true'))
         jobs:
           - job: PublishPackages
             displayName: Publish NPM Packages
diff --git a/.github/workflows/pr.yml b/.github/workflows/pr.yml
index 20b1655c9b..6cc7ec073c 100644
--- a/.github/workflows/pr.yml
+++ b/.github/workflows/pr.yml
@@ -301,10 +301,12 @@ jobs:
       - name: Validate changesets
         run: yarn change:check
 
-  publish-dry-run:
-    name: NPM Publish Dry Run
+  publish-dry-run-pack:
+    name: NPM Publish Dry Run — Pack
     runs-on: ubuntu-latest
     timeout-minutes: 60
+    outputs:
+      has-tarballs: ${{ steps.check.outputs.has-tarballs }}
     steps:
       - name: Checkout
         uses: actions/checkout@v4
@@ -323,6 +325,47 @@ jobs:
       - name: Pack packages
         run: yarn lage pack --verbose --grouped
 
+      - name: List packed tarballs
+        id: check
+        run: |
+          ls -la _packed/
+          if ls _packed/*.tgz > /dev/null 2>&1; then
+            echo "has-tarballs=true" >> $GITHUB_OUTPUT
+          else
+            echo "has-tarballs=false" >> $GITHUB_OUTPUT
+          fi
+
+      - name: Upload packed tarballs
+        if: steps.check.outputs.has-tarballs == 'true'
+        uses: actions/upload-artifact@v4
+        with:
+          name: packed-tarballs-dry-run
+          path: _packed/
+
+  publish-dry-run:
+    name: NPM Publish Dry Run — Publish
+    runs-on: ubuntu-latest
+    timeout-minutes: 60
+    needs: publish-dry-run-pack
+    if: needs.publish-dry-run-pack.outputs.has-tarballs == 'true'
+    steps:
+      - name: Checkout
+        uses: actions/checkout@v4
+
+      - name: Set up toolchain
+        uses: microsoft/react-native-test-app/.github/actions/setup-toolchain@5.0.14
+        with:
+          node-version: 22
+
+      - name: Install dependencies
+        run: yarn
+
+      - name: Download packed tarballs
+        uses: actions/download-artifact@v4
+        with:
+          name: packed-tarballs-dry-run
+          path: _packed/
+
       - name: Simulate publish
         run: yarn lage publish-dry-run --verbose --grouped
 
@@ -357,6 +400,7 @@ jobs:
       - windows
       - win32
       - check-changesets
+      - publish-dry-run-pack
       - publish-dry-run
       - test-links
     steps:
diff --git a/scripts/src/worker/pack.mts b/scripts/src/worker/pack.mts
index 00e9890e3c..c3dd9c0352 100644
--- a/scripts/src/worker/pack.mts
+++ b/scripts/src/worker/pack.mts
@@ -27,6 +27,13 @@ export const run: WorkerRunnerFunction = async ({ target }) => {
   const stagingDir = resolve(outputDir);
   await fs.mkdirp(stagingDir);
 
+  // Skip if this version is already published
+  const result = await $`npm view ${pkg.name}@${pkg.version} version`.nothrow().quiet();
+  if (result.exitCode === 0) {
+    console.log(`Skipping ${pkg.name}@${pkg.version} — already published`);
+    return;
+  }
+
   // Build a safe filename: @fluentui-react-native/button@1.0.0 -> fluentui-react-native-button-1.0.0.tgz
   const safeName = (pkg.name as string).replace(/@/g, '').replace(/\//g, '-');
   const tgzFilename = `${safeName}-${pkg.version}.tgz`;
diff --git a/scripts/src/worker/publish.mts b/scripts/src/worker/publish.mts
index 2ffa5ff92a..260e10dd10 100644
--- a/scripts/src/worker/publish.mts
+++ b/scripts/src/worker/publish.mts
@@ -38,17 +38,15 @@ export const run: WorkerRunnerFunction = async ({ target }) => {
 
   const dryRun = target.options?.dryRun ?? false;
   const outputDir = target.options?.outputDir as string | undefined;
-
-  // If an outputDir is configured, look for a pre-packed tarball
   const tarball = outputDir ? await findTarball(pkg, outputDir) : undefined;
 
-  if (tarball) {
-    // yarn npm publish doesn't support tarballs, so use npm directly
-    const args = ['publish', tarball, '--access', 'public', ...(dryRun ? ['--dry-run'] : [])];
-    await $({ cwd: target.cwd, verbose: true })`npm ${args}`;
-  } else {
-    // No tarball found — publish from source (local dev / dry-run)
-    const args = ['--tolerate-republish', ...(dryRun ? ['--dry-run'] : [])];
-    await $({ cwd: target.cwd, verbose: true })`yarn npm publish ${args}`;
+  if (!tarball) {
+    // No tarball means pack skipped this package (already published) — nothing to do
+    console.log(`Skipping ${pkg.name}@${pkg.version} — no tarball found`);
+    return;
   }
+
+  // yarn npm publish doesn't support tarballs, so use npm directly
+  const args = ['publish', tarball, '--access', 'public', ...(dryRun ? ['--dry-run'] : [])];
+  await $({ cwd: target.cwd, verbose: true })`npm ${args}`;
 };