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Bayesian Self-Evolving Agent Method

Bayesian-Agent treats each Skill or SOP as a hypothesis about agent success under a task context. The method is harness-agnostic: it can bootstrap Skills in a full run, repair existing agents incrementally, or transfer the same posterior Skill registry across compatible harnesses.

P(success | theta, C, h)
  • theta: frozen base model parameters
  • C: inference condition, including prompt, memory, tools, retrieved context, and harness feedback
  • h: Skill/SOP hypothesis

The framework does not train the base model and does not require replacing the agent runtime. It changes the inference environment by maintaining posterior-weighted Skill context that can be injected through adapters.

Evidence

Each agent run emits TrajectoryEvidence:

  • task id
  • skill id
  • context
  • success or failure outcome
  • token counts
  • latency and turns
  • failure mode
  • task metadata

Evidence should be action-verified. For example, a benchmark grader, unit test, or deterministic checker should decide whether a run succeeded.

Belief Update

Each Skill uses a Beta posterior:

success: alpha_i += 1
failure: beta_i += 1
E[p_i] = alpha_i / (alpha_i + beta_i)

The registry also tracks cost, context distribution, and failure modes. These statistics guide what gets injected into future context.

Rewrite Policy

The default policy maps posterior state to actions:

  • compress: repeated success suggests the Skill is stable
  • patch: failures cluster around a recurring failure mode
  • split: evidence spans different contexts
  • retire: failures dominate the posterior
  • explore: evidence is still sparse or uncertain

The policy is intentionally small in v0.4. It is designed to be replaced by project-specific policies.

Full Mode

Full self-evolving mode runs all tasks and updates Skill beliefs online. This mode tests whether Bayesian Skill Evolution can improve an agent from scratch.

Incremental Repair Mode

Incremental repair mode starts from a baseline agent's traces:

baseline traces -> failure ids -> Bayesian context -> rerun failures -> merged final result

This mode is the recommended production path because it adds Bayesian-Agent as a plug-in repair layer instead of replacing the base agent.